Current + capital account flows, oil import bill, FPI debt and equity.
Oil import bill at $70/$85/$100 Brent scenarios (every $10 = ~$18.5 bn CAD swing)
FPI debt + equity flows ($25-45 bn annual swings; JPM index at 9% weight)
Services exports surplus ($214 bn FY26, growing ~6% annually)
Brent settles in $75-85 range as West Asia ceasefire holds.
Brent $75-85 based on 5 weeks of ceasefire; BoP arithmetic collapses if oil > $95.
Brent sustained above $100 for 3+ months.