Current + capital account flows, oil import bill, FPI debt and equity.
Brent at $110.84/bbl adds ~$75–80bn to India's annualized oil import bill vs. FY25, creating the single largest current account headwind in a decade and sustaining near-term INR depreciation pressure.
FPI equity outflows of ~₹2.1 lakh crore (~$25bn USD) in just 4 months of 2026 — worst pace since 1993 — have overwhelmed the capital account, with Bloomberg bond index inclusion delayed to mid-2026 at the earliest removing a key offset catalyst.
EIA projects Brent falling to ~$89/b by Q4 2026 as Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens from late May/June, implying a ~$38bn/yr oil bill relief and the dominant 12-month BoP recovery driver if the ceasefire holds.
The Strait of Hormuz begins partial reopening by end-May/June 2026 as assumed by the EIA, allowing Brent to decline toward $89/b by Q4 2026; if the Iran conflict re-escalates and Hormuz remains closed through year-end, Brent staying above $110 breaks the 12-month BoP recovery thesis and INR tests ₹100+.
The entire 12-month recovery thesis rests on the EIA's projection of Brent declining to ~$89/b by Q4 2026, which itself assumes Hormuz partial reopening by end-May/June 2026 — this is a single-source, geopolitically contingent forecast being treated as a base case rather than an optimistic scenario.
If Brent's 30-day average remains above $100/bbl through September 2026, the EIA trajectory is falsified and the BoP recovery that underpins the ₹93.50 target collapses, implying the point estimate is too INR-bullish by at least ₹4–6.