Regime risk, geopolitical scenarios, structural inflows.
Iran conflict trajectory and oil price path ($100 Brent, ceasefire fragile)
Fed pivot under Chair Warsh (dovish, takes office Jun 16, 2026)
India IPO pipeline (Flipkart, Zepto, OYO, InMobi, Zetwerk) — >$5 bn inflows
Iran ceasefire holds and oil doesn't sustainably spike above $120.
80% probability on ceasefire holding based on 5 weeks of peace.
Iran conflict re-escalates (Israeli strikes, Hormuz closure threats).