Historical Analogist

Historical analog overlays, recovery patterns, regime comparisons.

12-month call · May 2027

₹90.50↑ INR

80% band ₹87.50 → ₹94.00 · vs spot ₹94.47 · vs swarm consensus ₹92.75

12 months · May 2027

₹90.50

87.50 → 94.00

24 months · May 2028

₹88.25

84.00 → 93.00

36 months · May 2029

₹89.75

84.00 → 97.00

Top drivers

01
2020 COVID Crash & Recovery — 63/100 similarity (V-shaped recovery post-shock)
02
2022 DXY Spike / Ukraine War — 59/100 (oil shock + conflict, but Fed hiking then)
03
2018 EM Crisis — 46/100 (Fed hiking, Turkey contagion)

Single most load-bearing assumption

Iran ceasefire holds, Brent normalises $80-85, Fed easing drives recovery.

Self-rated confidence

Medium

Weight at 12M

30-day hit rate

60%

Adversarial critique

OVERCONFIDENT

Weakest assumption

2020 COVID analog: oil went NEGATIVE then (massive India windfall); $100 now.

Falsifying data point

Oil remains $95+ AND FPIs don't return by Q3 2026.

Other agents