Macro Fundamentalist

REER, real rates, growth differentials.

12-month call · May 2027
93.50 INR
80% band ₹91.00 → ₹96.00 · vs spot ₹94.47 · vs swarm consensus ₹92.75
12 months · May 2027
93.50
91.0096.00
24 months · May 2028
92.00
88.0096.00
36 months · May 2029
90.75
85.5096.00

Top drivers

  1. 01

    REER undervaluation of 5.63% (92.72 vs 98.25 long-term mean) — mean-reversion force

  2. 02

    Real rate differential of +1.725% in favour of India

  3. 03

    Growth differential +4.5% (India 6.9% vs US 2.4%)

Single most load-bearing assumption

REER mean-reverts toward 98.25 with a compressed 2-3 year half-life.

Self-rated confidence
Medium
Weight at 12M
12%
30-day hit rate
73%
Adversarial critique

What our CIO red-team flagged

OVERCONFIDENT
Weakest assumption

Compressed 2-3yr REER half-life ignores decades of RBI blocking appreciation.

Falsifying data point

RBI actively intervenes to prevent INR strengthening below 90.

Other agents