Price action, derivatives positioning, mean-reversion levels.
+7.2% deviation above 200-week MA (~88.50) — historical correction range
Forward curve contango (6M premia at 3.48% p.a.)
All-time low cluster at 95.21 acting as multi-touch resistance
+7.2% deviation from 200WMA corrects 50-70% within 12M.
200WMA mean-reversion in non-stationary trending market is a lagging-indicator trap.
Spot breaks above 96 and holds for 4+ weeks.