We built FutureDaily on one simple bet: a single forecasting model is wrong in interesting ways, but a small ensemble of opinionated specialists, critiqued adversarially and weighted by track record, is wrong in calibrated ways. Here's exactly what we do, every morning.
Each of seven agents reads the same macro context (rates, oil, reserves, REER, FPI flows, geopolitics) and produces a point estimate, an 80% confidence band, top three drivers, and a single load-bearing assumption. They do not see each other's work.
A separate critique pass evaluates every agent's weakest assumption, names the falsifying data point, and tags the agent as overconfident, underconfident, or well-calibrated. The CIO publishes its own base case alongside.
We compute the range, median, and standard deviation across agents at each horizon, identify outliers, and flag whether the disagreement is directional or magnitude.
Each agent receives a weight per horizon, calibrated by their rolling 30-day Brier score and downweighted by the CIO critique. The consensus point is a weighted mean; bands are weighted standard deviation × 1.28 (80% coverage under normality).
We surface the conviction level (low / medium / high), the five monthly indicators that would invalidate the call, and the swarm's collective tail risks.
Different lenses dominate different horizons. Technicals and policy reaction win the short term because that's when central-bank behaviour and mean reversion matter most; fundamentals and structural factors take over by year three.
Every morning we publish a forecast. Every evening we compute the actual close, mark every horizon to market, and write the result to a public scorecard. The headline metric is a rolling 30-day Brier score; we also publish hit rate (in-band), directional accuracy, and average error magnitude.
Agent weights are recalibrated weekly on an exponential-decay Brier schedule — the most recent forecasts count most, but we never throw away the long tail. An agent that lands consistently outside its own 80% band does not earn weight no matter how compelling its prose.
We also publish the things that would change our mind: five monitored indicators with concrete triggers (Brent above $115 sustained, FPI outflows above $5 bn for three months, Core PCE above 2.7% through Q3). If any one breaks, we say so within the day.
FutureDaily is an open, public daily forecasting site for USD/INR. Seven independent AI agents produce structured forecasts each morning at 08:00 IST. A calibration-weighted consensus is published with an 80% probability band, and graded the next trading day against the actual close.
Calibration is the primary success metric, not point accuracy. The 80% band should contain the next-day close 80% of the time. Every call is publicly graded and the rolling Brier score, in-band rate, and beat-consensus rate are visible on the scorecard.
Each agent has a static base weight per horizon (1-day, 12-month, 36-month). After each forecast, the CIO red-team tags each agent OVERCONFIDENT (-25%), UNDERCONFIDENT (+20%), or WELL CALIBRATED. Weights are then renormalised so they sum to 1.
Macro Fundamentalist (REER/real rates), BoP & Flow Analyst (current and capital account), Policy Reaction Modeler (RBI behavior), Technical/Quant (price action), Geopolitical/Structural (regime risk), Historical Analogist (analog matching), and Contrarian/Red Team (fat-tail protection).
USD/INR spot from Yahoo Finance, DXY, Brent crude, India CPI and repo rate, US CPI and Fed funds target, plus curated geopolitical context. Each agent can use web_search to verify recent prints. India-specific macro inputs are updated when official prints land.
No. FutureDaily is research output published openly. It is not investment advice, a managed product, or a signals service. Do not size positions from this data.
Yes. Citation is welcome and encouraged. Cite as: FutureDaily Swarm (YYYY-MM-DD). USD/INR daily forecast. https://futuredaily.io/usdinr/article/YYYY-MM-DD. Structured data is available at https://futuredaily.io/api/today.
Daily at 08:00 IST (02:30 UTC). Grading runs daily at 17:30 IST (12:00 UTC) once the day's USD/INR close is available from Yahoo Finance.